老龄VLCC海上储油风险的多层模糊综合评价

Multi-level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Aging VLCC Offshore Oil Storage Risk

预估、判定老龄VLCC海上储油发生风险的概率及其后果的严重程度,寻求提高风险的应对和降低风险的能力,具有现实意义。老龄VLCC海上储油面临的环境复杂、多变,风险因素亦多样、多变,风险因素的取值较难。单纯的定量评价方法很难对此作出准确、客观的评价。文中采用AHP+模糊综合评价方法,将风险的定性评价与定量评价真正结合、统一起来,对风险评价过程进行量化,使定性评价精细化、明朗化,对评价对象的评判更加客观准确,使风险评价更具操作性,对老龄VLCC海上储油风险评价结果更加科学合理。老龄VLCC海上储油风险的AHP+模糊综合评价,包括建立评价对象的因素集、确定评价对象的评判集、确定评价因素的权重向量、进行单因素模糊评价和评价结果分析等步骤。

It is of practical significance to estimate and determine the probability of aging VLCC marine oil storage risk and the severity of its consequences, and to seek to improve risk response and reduce risk. The environment faced by the aging VLCC offshore oil storage is complex and variable, and the risk factors are diverse and variable. It is difficult to determine the value of risk factors. It is difficult to make an accurate and objective evaluation of this method by simple quantitative evaluation methods. This paper adopts the AHP+ fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to truly combine and unify the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk, and quantify the risk evaluation process, so that the qualitative evaluation is refined and clear. The evaluation of the evaluation object is more objective and accurate, and the risk evaluation is more operational. The evaluation results of the aging VLCC marine oil storage risk are more scientific and reasonable. The AHP + fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the aging VLCC marine oil storage risk includes: setting the factor set of the evaluation object;determining the evaluation set of the evaluation object;determining the weight vector of the evaluation factor;performing the single factor fuzzy evaluation and the evaluation result analysis steps.