菲利普斯曲线理论与政策源流新探——宏观经济分析的重要工具

A New Exploration of Phillips Curve Theory and Policy Origin:Important tools for Macroeconomic Analysis

经济增长、通货膨胀和失业率三大变量及相互间的动态关系是宏观经济研究永恒的主题,菲利普斯系列函数曲线恰恰是分析三者及相互关系的最为有效的理论工具,也是宏观经济政策调控的操作依据。菲利普斯系列函数曲线的源流与学派历经了从一般到附加预期、从短期到长期,从解释货币政策时间非一致性到阐明通货膨胀预期陷阱等的一个不断创新与发展的历史演绎。

The dynamic relationship of the economic growth,the inflation rate and the unemployment rate is the eternal theme of macroeconomic research.The Phillips series function curve is precisely the most effective theoretical tool for analyzing the three and their mutual relations.It is also the operating basis for macroeconomic policy regulation.The origin and school of Phillips series function curves have undergone a historical interpretation of continuous innovation that was developed from general to additional expectations,from short-term to long-term,from explaining the time inconsistency of monetary policy to clarifying the trap of inflation expectations.