1971-2017年陇中地区气候变化及其对旱地春小麦产量的影响

Climate Changes in Middle of Gansu Province from 1971 to 2017 and Its Impact on Yield of Dryland Spring Wheat

为了解不同生育阶段气候变化对旱地春小麦产量的影响,利用陇中地区1971-2017年逐日气温和降水量,运用APSIM模型模拟春小麦生育期和产量,对近47年来该地区气候变化特征及其与春小麦产量的相关性进行了分析。结果表明,陇中地区年降水量按4.639 mm·10a^-1的速率显著减少,春小麦全生育期降水量按1.304 mm·10a^-1的速率减少,8个生育阶段的降水变化趋势不同,其中灌浆-成熟期的降水量下降幅度最大,倾向率为-2.995 mm·10a^-1;分蘖-拔节期的降水量有明显的上升趋势,倾向率1.855 mm·10a^-1。旱地春小麦全生育期和各生育阶段的日均温、日均最高温和日均最低温都呈上升趋势,并且日均最低温的上升幅度要大于日均最高温。经相关分析,旱地春小麦全生育期降水量和日均最高温与产量分别呈极显著和显著相关;拔节-孕穗期和灌浆-成熟期降水量与产量的相关性分别达显著和极显著水平,拔节-孕穗期和灌浆-成熟期日均温与产量均呈极显著相关,拔节-孕穗期和灌浆-成熟期的日均最高温与产量分别呈显著相关和极显著相关。

In order to understand the effect of climate changes on the yeild of dryland spring wheat at different stages,the daily temperature and precipitation data from 1971 to 2017 in middle of Gansu province,were used to simulate growth periods and yield of spring wheat by APSIM model.Correlations between characteristics of climate changes and yield of spring wheat were analyzed using 47 years of data.The results showed that annual precipitation decreased significantly at the rate of 4.639 mm per decade;the precipitation during spring wheat growing season decreased at the rate oF1.304 per decade;the trend of precipitation change was different at the eight growth stages,among which the precipitation in the grouting-maturity stage decreased the most,with the tendency rate of-2.995 mm per decade,and the precipitation at tillering-jointing stage showed an obvious upward trend,with the tendency rate oF1.855 mm per decade;the daily mean temperature,daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature showed a upward trend in the whole growth period and all growth stages,and the increase range of daily minimum temperature was greater than that of daily maximum temperature.According to the correlation analysis,the precipitation and the daily maximum temperature in the whole growth period of dryland spring wheat were significantly correlated with yield;the precipitation and the yield were significantly correlated at jointing-booting stages and filling-maturity stages;the daily average temperature and yield were significantly correlated at jointing-booting stages and filling-maturity stages,and the daily average maximum temperature and yield were significantly correlated at jointing-booting stages and filling-maturity stages.