信心、货币政策与中国经济波动关系的统计检验

A Statistical Test on Relationship Between Confidence,Monetary Policy and China’s Economic Fluctuations

文章基于时变视角,依据行为经济学理论,构建了一个包含企业家信心、投资者信心、利率、货币增长率、经济增长率和通货膨胀率六变量的TVP-VAR模型,研究信心、货币政策与经济波动之间的时变特征。结果表明:企业家信心和投资者信心能够影响利率和货币增长率,即信心可以通过影响货币政策进而作用于宏观经济。货币增长率和利率能够影响投资者信心和企业家信心,进而可以通过信心影响宏观经济。从时变角度看,企业家信心一单位的正向冲击在整个样本区间内均会促进经济的增长;在短期内投资者信心和货币增长率对经济增长具有促进作用,但是在长期内货币增长率的提高会阻碍经济的增长。

Based on the time-varying perspective and the theory of behavioral economics,this paper constructs a[TVP-VAR]model containing six variables:entrepreneurial confidence,investor confidence,interest rate,currency growth rate,economic growth rate and inflation rate.And then,the paper makes a study on the time-varying characteristics of confidence,monetary policy and economic fluctuations.The results show that entrepreneur confidence and investor confidence can affect interest rates and currency growth rates,that is,confidence can act on macro economy by influencing monetary policy;monetary growth rates and interest rates can affect investor and entrepreneurial confidence,which in turn can affect the macro economy through confidence;from the time-varying perspective,the positive impact of entrepreneurial confidence on a unit will promote economic growth throughout the sample range;in the short term,investor confidence and currency growth rate can promote economic growth,but an increase in the monetary rate growth in the long run will hinder economic growth.