对外援助、制度质量与我国对外直接投资

Foreign Aid, Institutional Quality and China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

基于对外直接投资区位选择视角,利用2003-2014年跨国数据和动态面板模型系统地分析对外援助、受援国制度质量对中国对外直接投资的影响效应。研究发现:若不考虑制度因素,对外援助是我国海外投资的"先锋队",对受援国援助增加1%约能带动我国对受援国投资增长5.8%。若考虑制度因素,受援国腐败控制并不影响援助对直接投资的影响,政府运行效率、法制水平会正向影响援助的先锋作用。从不同援助类型看,腐败控制、政府运行效率和法制水平正向影响经济基础设施援助的"先锋作用",对社会基础设施援助的促进效应并不显著;而生产部门援助之于中国对外直接投资的正向效应在政府运行效率和法制水平影响下十分明显,非生产部门援助效应仅在腐败控制和政府运行效率影响下显著为正。

From the perspective of the locational choice for outward foreign direct investment, this paper makes use of the cross-country data from 2003 to 2014 and the dynamic panel models to analyze the effect of foreign aid and the system quality of recipient countries on China’s outward foreign direct investment comprehensively. The findings show that, if the institutional factors are not taken into account, foreign aid is the" vanguard" of China’s overseas investment. A 1% increase in aid to recipient countries can drive China’s investment in recipient countries to grow by 5.8%. If the institutional factors are considered, the corruption control of the recipient countries will not affect the impact of aid on direct investment;the efficiency of government operations and the level of the legal system will positively affect the pioneering role of the aid. Seeing from the different types of aids,the corruption control, government running efficiency and the level of the legal system would positively influence the"pioneer role"of the economic infrastructure aids, while the promotion effect on social infrastructure aids is not significant. The positive effects of production sector aids on China’s outward foreign direct investment are obvious under the influence of government running efficiency and the level of the legal system, while the aid effect in the non-production sector is only significantly positive under the influence of corruption control and government running efficiency.