基于长寿风险的城镇养老保险偿付能力评估

Evaluation of the Solvency of Urban Pension Insurance Based on Longevity Risks

伴随人口老龄化的加速发展,长寿风险对当前养老金体系产生极为不利的影响。为准确评估长寿风险背景下城镇职工基本养老保险偿付能力状况,基于有限数据的双随机Lee-Carter模型构建全因素区间估计方法,并以此度量长寿风险,再通过建立偿付能力评估模型,对2018-2050年现行制度持续运行下的偿付能力进行评估,然后将延迟退休年龄改革方案纳入到偿付能力评估模型中,全面考察我国城镇职工基本养老保险所面临的偿付能力状况。

With the fast development of the aging population, the longevity risks exert great adverse impacts on the current pension system. In order to accurately assess the solvency status of urban employees’ basic pension insurance in the context of longevity risks, this paper constructs a full-factor interval estimation method based on the double-randomized Lee-Carter model of finite data and measures the longevity risks. Then by establishing a solvency assessment model, it evaluates the solvency under the ongoing operation of the current system from 2018 to 2050. After that, it incorporates the reform scheme for delaying the retirement age into the solvency assessment model to examine comprehensively the solvency conditions of China’s basic pension insurance for urban employees,the purpose is to provide guidance and suggestions for the urban employees’ basic pension insurance in China to keep a long-term healthy and sustainable development.