安倍经济学相机选择性货币政策对日本经济的影响

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Abenomics’ Discretionary Policy on Japan’s Economic Grouwth Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

为解决日本经济低迷的难题,日本银行实施了相机选择性的货币政策。运用TVP-SV-VAR模型分析相机选择性货币政策对日本经济的影响,得出以下结论:在2014年第四季度、2016年第一季度和2016年第三季度这三个时变点,作为相机选择性货币政策的"通过国债收益率曲线调节,压低国债长期利率政策"对日本经济增长的影响基本相同;"扩大对交易型开放式指数基金和日本房地产投资信托基金的购买数量政策"对日本经济增长的影响基本相同;"扩大对商业票据和公司债券的购买数量政策"对日本经济增长的影响基本相同;"调节短期利率政策"对日本经济增长的影响基本相同。

In order to solve the problem of Japan’s economic downturn Bank of Japan has implemented a discretionary monetary policy.In order to analyze the impact of discretionary monetary policy on Japan’s economy,the TVP-SV-VAR model is used.The results show that:In the fourth quarter of 2014,the first quarter of 2016 and the third quarter of2016,the policy which is about reducing the interest rate of long-term national debt by adjusting the yield curve of national debt could make the same impacts on Japan’ s economic growth.The policy of expanding the quantity of purchases of ETF and J-REIT could make the same impacts on Japan’ s economic growth.The policy of expanding the quantity of purchases of CP and Corporate Bonds could make the same impacts on Japan’ s economic growth.The policy of adjusting short-term interest rate could make the same impacts on Japan’s economic growth.