软信息与硬信息孰轻孰重——中小企业授信与信用风险视角

Soft Information vs. Hard Information:From the Perspective of Credit and Credit Risk of SMEs

文章利用浙江省非上市中小企业问卷数据,采用logistic模型对非上市中小企业信用风险的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明:非上市中小企业硬信息指标,特别是销售收入、资产负债率、税前利润增长对信用风险有较大影响;软信息指标中的企业家特征,特别是企业家学历、不良爱好、社交活动等对企业信用风险也有较大影响;非上市企业的企业特征,特别是企业的口碑、市场占有率和内部控制完善程度等对信用风险具有显著影响。预测对比研究发现,软信息指标对企业信用风险的预测能力高于硬信息指标,综合使用硬信息与软信息指标建立的信用风险模型具有最佳的预测效果。文章还发现,现阶段商业银行对于中小企业授信情况存在一定问题,有相当比例经营状况良好的中小企业得不到银行的授信,因此改善商业银行的信贷机制刻不容缓。

This paper uses the questionnaire data of Zhejiang provinces unlisted small and medium-sized enterprises and adopts logistic model to make an empirical analysis of the factors influencing the credit risk of unlisted small and medium-sized enterprises.The results show that unlisted SMEs hard information indicators,especially sales revenue,asset-liability ratio and pre-tax profit growth,have a great impact on credit risk;the characteristics of entrepreneurs in soft information indicators,especially entrepreneurs education background,bad hobbies and social activities,have a great impact on enterprise credit risk;the characteristics of unlisted enterprises,especially their reputation image,market share and internal control,have a significant impact on credit risk.It is found that soft information index can predict enterprise credit risk better than hard information index,and the credit risk model based on the combination of hard information and soft information has the best prediction effect.This paper also finds that there are some problems in the credit granting of SMEs by commercial banks at the present stage.A considerable proportion of enterprises with good business conditions(in other words,enterprises that can provide high-quality soft information)cannot get credit from banks,which needs to attract the attention of commercial banks.