考虑缺货情况的销售商预售策略研究

An Advance Selling Strategy of the Seller Considering Stockouts

在预售新商品时,销售商若采取缺货补偿策略,或者为未按时收到货的消费者提供全额退款服务,会是消费者的一种利益保障,增加消费者预订购买的可能性,从而增加销售利润。因此,本文将销售商单一预售策略和提供缺货补偿的策略与提供全额退款的策略进行比较,构建3种不同策略的销售商利润模型,以期得出对于销售商最优的预售策略。结果表明,3种不同的销售策略的优劣之分受所在销售环境影响,销售商可以根据销售环境参数的不同来选择最优的销售策略,并且在实施单一预售策略和缺货可立即退款策略时,销售商可以通过夸大其发货可能性来获得更高的利润,但实际发货可能性的提升才是销售商努力的更优方向。

It will be a kind of benefit guarantee for the consumers if the seller adopts the strategy of compensation for stockouts or provides full refund service for the consumers who do not receive the goods on time when the seller presells a new product. And it may increase the possibility of the consumers’ booking, thereby increasing their profit. Therefore, the single advance selling strategy and the strategy of compensation for delayed delivery and the strategy of providing full refund are compared, the profit models of the retailer with three different strategies are constructed in order to obtain a best advance selling strategy. The results show that the distinction between the three different selling strategies are influenced by the sales environment. The seller could choose the optimal selling strategy according to the different sales environment.When implementing the single advance selling strategy and the strategy of providing full refund, the seller can get higher profits by exaggerating the possibility of delivery on time. But the actual delivery possibility promotion is the better improvement direction.