密集到达下的预约决策的仿真研究

A Simulation of Appointment Decision under Peak Arrival

为了分析在密集到达情况下的预约决策的效果,研究针对不同场景的合理预约方式。通过现场调研及历史数据统计,选用9种预约规则,利用离散系统仿真设置分析了11组预约率与3种人数密集到达情况相结合的33种场景。以等待时间为评价指标汇总仿真实验数据,分析得到了预约规则-密集到达人数-预约率三者相关联的变化规律,以及在各场景下的最佳预约规则类型。针对密集到达下预约系统的设计,以及选择合理的预约规则等方面总结了规律并给出相应改善建议。

The appropriate appointment decision situation under different scenarios studied by effect analysis considering peak arrival case. Through survey and statistical analysis on historical data, nine basic appointment rules are adopted. The experiments of 11 groups of reservation rate combined with 3 kinds of peak arrival conditions are set up and analyzed with discrete event system simulation. The waiting time is used as the measurement of simulation experiment, and the relationship among the appointment rule-the number of arrival-the reservation ratio is obtained by analyzing the influence on the waiting time. The optimal appointment rule under each case is obtained. The appropriate appointment rule is summarized under peak arrival case and several improvement suggestions are given for the design of appointment system.