基于等维递补灰色模型的人口预测分析

Analysis of Population Prediction Based on Equal Dimension Recurrent Grey Prediction

以2003~2017年陕西省年末人口总数为依据,选择2003~2015年数据建立静态灰色模型,而后构建等维递补动态模型与静态灰色模型.结果表明,动态预测模型明显好于静态预测模型,动态预测模型预测精度较高,可靠性强.最后利用等维递补动态模型对陕西省2018~2028年人口进行预测,为有关部门决策提供了科学依据.

Based on the total population of Shanxi Province at the end of the year from 2003 to 2017,a static grey model is established by choosing the data from 2003 to 2015,and then a dynamic model with equal dimension recurrence is constructed to compare with the static grey model.The results show that the dynamic prediction model is obviously better than the static prediction model.The prediction accuracy of the model is higher and the reliability is stronger.Finally,the population of Shanxi Province from 2018 to 2028 is predicted by using the dynamic model with equal dimension supplement to provide a scientific basis for relevant departments in decision-making.