房贷利率倍数对房价的影响分析

An Analysis of the Impact of the Multiple Mortgage Interest Rate on the Housing Price

考虑房地产限贷政策,构建平均首付比的指标,利用2016年2月至2019年6月的数据建立多元回归模型对深圳市的房地产市场进行实证研究,重点研究房贷利率优惠政策对于房价变动的影响.结论表明,平均首付比和房贷利率倍数对于房价增速均具有显著的负向影响.首付比是非常有效的房价调控手段,提高平均首付比一成,平均会降低二手房房价增速23.38个百分点;房贷利率倍数增加0.01,平均会降低二手房房价增速0.79个百分点.

Considering policies on the limit of the real estate loan,the average down payment ratio index was decided,and a multiple regression model constructed on the basis of the data from February 2016 to June 2019 to empirically study the real estate market in Shenzhen,especially the impact of mortgage interest rate preferential policies on the changes in housing prices.The results showed that the average ratio of down payment and the multiple of mortgage interest rate both had significant negative impact on the growth of housing prices;down-payment ratio was a very effective means of housing price control.Increasing the average down payment ratio by 10%would reduce the growth rate of second-hand housing price by 23.38%on average;the increase of the multiple of mortgage interest rate by 0.011 would reduce the growth rate of second-hand housing price by 0.79%on average.