证券市场上的分析师:理性引领抑或随波逐流?——一个文献综述

The Analysts of Securities Market:Rationally Leading or Drifting?——A Literature Review

证券分析师作为证券市场上的信息中介被认为是重要的理性力量,人们期待证券分析师能在市场上起到理性引领的作用。但现有的研究结论表明证券分析师的预测和评级会受到市场情绪的影响。然而,通过对以往文献的分析发现,现有的研究在理论基础和研究方法上存在缺陷,忽略了证券分析师作为具有优势地位的群体对市场情绪可能存在的影响,存在内生性问题。借鉴群体情绪形成机制理论,运用向量自回归(VAR)和结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,引入个体特征、公司特征和市态等第三方因素进行研究,可能是本领域未来研究的发展方向。

As information intermediaries in the market securities analysts are considered as an important and rational mechanism. They are expected to rationally lead the market. But prior research shows that securities analysts’ forecasts and recommendations will be influenced by market sentiment. However these studies have some flaws on the theoretical basis and research methods. Particularly they ignore that the securities analysts as individuals in advantageous positions may adversely affect the market sentiment resulting endogeneity problems. Employing the vector autoregressive(VAR) and the structural vector autoregressive(SVAR) models and the theory of social emotion and considering the individual characteristics of analysts corporate characteristics market conditions and other third-party factors may be the future research direction of this field.