“资源诅咒”:论石油因素对中东的消极影响

‘Resource Curse’: On Negative Effects of the Petroleum Factor in the Middle East

石油经济的系统性影响是中东政治的一大特色。总体来看,石油经济兴起对中东国家的负面影响更大:一是产油国享受到巨额财富的短期利益,但经济结构和发展价值观却受到长远损害;二是石油经济消解了产油国以及非产油国工业化的决心,加剧了地区经济不平衡;三是石油经济导致中东保守势力壮大,使它们更加依附于西方国家;四是石油经济使美元霸权“绝处逢生”,国际金融旧秩序更趋强化。在此背景下,虽然中东产油国也曾经进行过工业化尝试,但其“购买工业化”模式最终均以失败告终。

The oil economy has played a systematic role in Middle Eastern politics.In general,the rise of the oil economy has more negative impact on the Middle East countries.First,the oil-producing countries may enjoy the short-term benefits of huge wealth,but the economic structure and development values have been damaged in the long run.Second,the oil economy has dissolved the determination of industrialization in the oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries,and has intensified imbalances in regional economy.Third,the oil economy has led to the growth of conservative forces in the Middle East and compel these countries more dependent on Western countries.Fourth,the oil economy has sustained the US dollar hegemony,and strengthened the international financial order based on US dollar.In this context,the Middle East oil-producing countries have also tried to improve industrialization,but this kind of“purchasing industrialization”has eventually failed.