临时收储政策变动背景下玉米产量变化影响因素分析——以河北省为例

Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Variation of Corn Yield under the Background of Temporary Purchase and Storage Policy Adjustment——Take Hebei Province as an Example

2016年国家取消了玉米临时收储政策,提出了“价补分离”的政策设计,临时收储政策变动背景下的玉米产量变化影响因素是农业经济领域中理论和实践的热点问题。以1991-2017年河北省玉米产量和农业机械总动力、播种面积、农用化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积、政策因素(即是否实施玉米临时收储政策)为样本数据,运用最小二乘法进行回归分析,建立河北省玉米产量与上述影响因素之间的最优回归模型。研究结果表明,播种面积、有效灌溉面积和玉米产量之间存在正相关关系,对玉米产量影响最为显著;农业机械总动力、政策因素对玉米产量也有较大影响;化肥施用量对河北省玉米产量影响较小。基于此提出加大农田基础设施建设、加强玉米产业政策扶持等政策启示。

In 2016,China cancelled the Temporary Purchase and Storage Policy(TPSP)of corn and put forward the principle of′Price Supplement Separation′.The influencing factors of corn yield under the background of TPSP adjustment have become the hot issues in theoretical research and practical activities on agricultural economy field.Based on the sample data of corn yield and total power of agricultural machinery,sowing area,agricultural fertilizer application amount,effective irrigation area and policy factors(implementing TPSP or not)in Hebei Province from 1991 to 2017,the least square method was used for regression analysis to establish the optimal regression model between corn yield and the above influencing factors in Hebei Province.The results showed that there was a positive correlation between sowing area,effective irrigation area and corn yield,and these two factors had the most significant impact on corn yield.The total power of agricultural machinery and policy factors also had a great influence on corn yield.The amount of fertilizer application had a minor impact on corn yield in Hebei Province.Based on the above results,we put forward some policy suggestions such as enhancing the construction of farmland infrastructure and strengthening the policy support on corn industry.