2020—2035年中国LNG接收站建设需求测算

China LNG Terminal Capacity Expected for 2020-2035

天然气在我国能源转型进程中扮演了重要角色,随着能源消费清洁化要求及北方地区“煤改气”的大力推进,我国天然气消费量近年来高速增长。但基础设施建设的不足成为制约我国天然气产业健康发展日益突出的问题之一,其中LNG接收站的建设是保障海外资源进口充足的关键。根据国家天然气生产和消费相关规划及未来天然气进口管道和计划建设的LNG接收站投产进度,经测算,当前至2035年,我国LNG接收站设计能力缺口将呈现出先降后升的趋势。考虑45%、60%和80%三种利用率情景,至2035年我国的LNG接收站接收能力缺口分别为2466亿立方米、1352亿立方米和517亿立方米,提高LNG接收站利用率可以显著缓解我国LNG接收站能力不足的问题。

Natural gas plays an important role in China's energy transition.With the push for clean energy and coal-to-gas switch in the northern region,China's natural gas consumption has increased rapidly in recent years.However,the infrastructure constraints have become one of the major problems for healthy development of China's natural gas industry.The construction of LNG receiving terminals is the key to ensuring sufficient imports of overseas resources.According to the national plans for natural gas production and consumption and the schedules for future natural gas import pipelines and LNG receiving terminal construction,it is estimated that,from now through 2035,the design capacity gap of China's LNG receiving terminals will show a trend of first drop and then rise.Considering the utilization scenarios of 45%,60%and 80%,by 2035,the design capacity gap of LNG receiving terminals in China is expected to pick up to 247 billion cubic meters,135 billion cubic meters and 52 billion cubic meters,respectively.Promoting the utilization rate of LNG receiving terminals can significantly alleviate the shortage of LNG receiving capacity in China.