宏观视角下我国出生率变化与社会特征探究

Analysis on China’s Birth Rate Changes and Social Characteristics From A Macro Perspective

目的通过对我国人口出生率变化情况的纵向序列观测与出生率和经济、教育水平的横向交叉分析,揭示当前我国出生率总体趋势和社会特征,为全国和地方人口战略规划提供参考。方法数据来源于《中国统计年鉴2019》,运用Excel 2007软件对所采集的数据进行描述性统计分析。结果我国人口出生率从1998年15.64‰到2018年的10.94‰,呈总体下降趋势,人口出生率与人均可支配收入、高等教育人群占比基本呈现负相关关联,但部分地区存在特异性。结论面对下降的出生率,需要采取综合性、全面性的生育支持政策和手段,地方政策和措施的制定需结合其特殊性,最终从经济、社会、文化等方面积极稳健地促进人口科学合理地增长。

Objective Through the longitudinal serial observations of changes in the birth rate of China and the horizontal cross-over analysis of birth rates and economic and educational levels,this study aim to reveal the current general trends and social characteristics of birth rates in China,in order to provide a reference for national and local population strategic planning.Methods The data was extracted from China Statistical Yearbook 2019.Excel 2007 was used to perform the descriptive statistical analysis.Results The birth rate of China’s population had changed from 15.64‰in 1998 to 10.94‰in 2018,which showed a general downward trend.The birth rate had a negative correlation with per capita disposable income and the proportion of higher education population,but there were specificities and differences in some areas.Conclusion Facing the declining birth rate,more comprehensive and comprehensive fertility support policies and measures need to be adopted and the formulation of local policies and measures needs to be combined with its particularity,which could actively and steadily promote the scientific and rational growth of the population from the economic,social,and cultural atmosphere.