探索后冷战时代东南亚地区的演进之道

The Evolution of Southeast Asia in the Post-Cold War Era

进入21世纪尤其是党的十八大以来,我国关于东南亚的学术研究和应用研究同时加强,学以致用渐成风气。这主要源于两种动力:一种是政策动力,另一种是学界动力。笔者认为,加强我国的东南亚研究,服务国家对外战略,具有很强的时代性和当下性,首先需要在宏观层面把握后冷战时代东南亚地区的演进之道和发展大势,大致有如下结论:一是东南亚在后冷战时代出现了整体向好的转折性变化;二是东南亚国家能够更加主动地塑造新的空间观;三是东盟创建了“东盟+”结构,成为新一代地区架构师;四是多种动力互动形成东南亚演进的系统动力学;五是后冷战时代东南亚地区的演进具有很强的自主性和创造性,可以从韧性、创造性、权力结构、联通性等四个方面进行解释;六是东南亚仍然面临巨大的发展困境;七是中国需要改进对东南亚的认知与行动,与东盟共同创造“第三个奇迹”。

In the 21st century,especially since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC),China has strengthened its academic and applied research on Southeast Asia.This phenomenon derives from both policy-driveii and academy-driven forces.In the purpose of the policy,the central government has raised the concern for many research institutions to strengthen regional studies,empowering think tanks to serve national strategies.SEA is the primary area under China's foreign strategy,while the South China Sea issue,regional cooperation and the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative need the research field to combine both learning and application approach.In the purpose of the acade・my,International Relations and Area Studies are highly realistic and political.Many scholar of China integrate both approaches.To strengthen the SEA studies in China,to serve mtional foreign strategy with a strong sense of modernity and contemporary,it first needs a macrolevel approach to know the evolution pathway and the trends of development.It concludes:First,SEA encounters a holistically positive change in the post-cold war era;Second,SEA nations can more proactively shape a new geographic view;Third,ASEAN-established"ASEAN Plus"structure becomes a region designer and center in a new era.Fourth,many forces interact and shape a progressive system dynamic in SEA.Fifth,the evolution of Southeast Asia in the post-cold war era has strong autonomy and creativity,which can be explained from toughness,creativity,power structure and connectivity;Sixth,SEA still faces enoimous obstades in terms of development;Seventh,China has to understand more about SEA,to improve its aaivines and,with ASEAN,creates"Third Miraclen.