论泰国政治转型对马来穆斯林分离问题的影响

Influence of Political Transition on Separation Issues of Malay Muslims in Thailand

自1932年立宪革命至今,泰国的政治转型大体经过了三个阶段:1932-1957年的民主建立时期,1973-1988年的民主扩大时期,1992-2014年的大众民主时期。在政治转型进程中,马来穆斯林分离问题大体经历了"产生-恶化-缓解-复燃"的演变过程。政治转型在其中扮演了较为负面的角色。其内在逻辑是:一是政治转型形成了政治多元化的竞争环境,不同的民主诉求与差异化的民族主义交织在一起,导致主体民族的控制型民主和少数民族的分离主义;二是恶性竞争加剧民族矛盾,会使不稳定的民族关系进一步恶化;三是泰国的政治转型呈现出周期性的政治动荡和危机,泰国政府无法在和平有序的政治环境下有效治理民族分离。2019年,泰国举行了2014年军事政变以来的首次全国大选,开启了新一轮政治转型。如何避免此次转型对泰南和平进程造成不利影响,是目前摆在新民选政府面前的一大难题。

Since the constitutional revolution in 1932,Thailand’s political transformation has gone through three periods: the first political transition period from 1932 to 1957,the second political transition period from 1973 to 1988,and the third political transition period from 1992 to 2014. In the process of transformation,separation issues of the Malay Muslims followed the pattern of"Engender-Exacerbate-Remission-Relapse". The political transition played a more negative role in the above-mentioned separation issues. After five years,on March 24,2019,Thailand held general elections for the first time since the military coup in 2014,starting the new turn of political transition. How to avoid its adverse effects on the peace process in the south Thailand is a big problem faced by the new democratic government.