中国流动人口分布演变及其对城镇化的影响——基于省际、省内流动的对比分析

The Evolution of China’s Floating Population and Its Impact on Urbanization:A comparative Analysis based on Inter-and Intra-provincial Perspectives

基于2000、2010年中国人口普查分县数据资料,对比分析省际、省内跨县流动人口的空间格局、形成机制及城镇化的差异。结果表明:①省际、省内跨县流动人口的集聚发展趋势存在差异,省际流动人口表现为“聚中有散”,即集聚程度较高,分散化迹象趋于明显;省内跨县流动人口则表现为“散中有聚”,其较为分散地分布省会、地级市等大中城市,在向前1%城市集聚。②流动人口流入地的选择受政府和市场力量双重作用的影响,省际流动人口倾向于有更多就业机会、更高工资水平的省会级城市;省内跨县流动人口更看重就业机会,更偏向地级市,财政支出对其流入地选择影响更大。③省际、省内跨县流动人口对2010年全国城镇化水平的贡献分别为4.24%,2.74%,前者推动着东部沿海地区城市群的发展优化,后者则强化着中西部大中城市“一城独大”的态势。

Based on the data of the 2000 and 2010 China Census counties,this paper compares and analyzes the spatial pattern,formation mechanism and urbanization of the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population.The results are as follows:1)The polarization pattern of the Inter-and Intra-provincial floating population is weakening,and the proportion of the floating population absorbed by the top 10 cities has declined.In the trend of agglomeration,the inter-provincial floating population showed‘High concentration while showing signs of decentralization’,that is,the degree of agglomeration was higher,and the signs of decentralization became more obvious.The proportion of inter-provincial floating population absorbed by the former 1%city decreased significantly.The floating population in the province is characterized by“Dispersion of distribution while developing toward agglomeration”.It is more scattered and distributed in large and medium-sized cities such as provincial capitals and prefecture-level cities,and is still gathering in 1%of cities.2)The inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population is affected by the dual role of the government and market forces.The inter-provincial floating population is more inclined to the provincial capitals and municipalities with more employment opportunities and higher wages in the process of selecting inflows.The floating population in the province pays more attention to employment opportunities,and prefers to flow to prefecture-level cities.In contrast to the inter-provincial population,urban public services have a greater impact on the inflow of floating population in the Intra-provincial Floating population.3)The“molecular effect”of the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population has increased the level of urbanization through the“molecular effect”of urban population changes.The contribution of the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population to urbanization reached 4.24%and 2.74%respectively in 2010.In addition,the inter-provincial and intra-provincial floating population has also greatly affected the hierarchical system and spatial distribution of China's urban system.