结构性货币政策有效吗？——基于支农再贷款的实证研究

Is Structural Monetary Policy Effective?——An Empirical Study Based on Agricultural Relending

近年来,为了应对市场机制缺陷和金融结构性问题,中央银行运用结构性货币政策的实践大量增加。本文在分析结构性货币政策传导机制和约束条件的基础上,通过PVAR模型对支农再贷款及相关变量面板数据开展实证分析,发现支农再贷款在西部地区总体有效,对涉农贷款、农业发展、农民收入增长等有显著促进效应。而市场经济越发达的地区,支农再贷款政策效应越差。但研究未发现支农再贷款对金融机构净息差、不良贷款有长期负面影响。文章建议现阶段中央银行进一步完善结构性货币政策,加强与财政政策的协调配合,解决金融结构性问题,但长期而言仍需要通过完善市场机制建设来解决结构性问题。

Central banks have implemented structural monetary policies to resolve market failure as well as financial structural problems in recent years. Basing on the analysis of transmission mechanism and constraints of structural policy, this paper makes an empirical study on the effect of central-bank lending for agriculture and other panel data through PVAR model. It finds that the central-bank lending for agriculture has significant positive effects on agriculture-related loans, rural development and farmers’ income in under-development area, whereas the effect would be more weak in developed regions. It isn’t found that the central-bank lending for agriculture has long-term negative impact on commercial banks’ net interest margin and NPL under current situations.Finally, this paper suggests that central banks should improve structural policies and coordinate with fiscal policies to settle the financial structure problems, but in the long term, they should promote the construction of market mechanism.