基于系统动力学的我国节能环保产业政策仿真研究

Simulation Research on China’s Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Industry Policy Based on System Dynamics

我国节能环保产业处于发展的成长期,在发展中仍存在许多问题,促进节能环保产业加快发展,需要对节能环保产业发展模式进行深层次分析.运用系统动力学方法,构建节能环保产业发展系统动力学模型,并将模型分解为四个子系统,节能环保产业子系统、能源消耗与环境污染子系统、政策调控子系统和技术发展子系统.从当前节能环保产业发展现行政策状况、产业政策方案、财税政策方案和技术政策方案四个角度进行政策模拟仿真,发现调整产业政策能够有效促进我国能环保产业发展进而对我国节能环保产业发展提出意见和建议.

China's energy-saving and environmental protection industry is in the growth stage of development.There are still many problems in the development.To promote the accelerated development of energy-saving and environmental protection industries,it is necessary to conduct a deep analysis of the development model of energy-saving and environmental protection industries.This paper uses the system dynamics method to construct the system dynamics model of energy conservation and environmental protection industry development,and decomposes the model into four subsystems,energy conservation and environmental protection industry subsystem,energy consumption and environmental pollution subsystem,policy control subsystem and technology development subsystem.The policy simulation was carried out from the current policy situation,industrial policy scheme,fiscal policy scheme and technical policy scheme of the development of energy conservation and environmen tai protection indus try.It was found t hat the adjust men t of industrial policy can effectively promote the development of China's energy conservation and environmental protection industry,and then put forward opinions and suggestions on the development of China's energy conservation and environmental protection.