粮食种植户的农业保险产品潜在需求研究——基于物化成本保险经历者的角度

What is the Potential Demand of Insurance Products for Farmers in Grain Producing Areas in China?

论文以具有农作物物化成本保险参保经验的农户为研究对象,探讨了农户对农业保险产品的潜在需求,并基于13个粮食主产省的调查数据,利用嵌套Logit模型(NLM)分析了农户对生产风险及市场风险管理的偏好,进而探讨了不同保险产品选择的影响因素。研究表明,粮食种植户以自然风险管理为重,并依次表现出对保产量、保成本、保收入和保价格的购买意愿;不同的保险产品需求受不同因素影响;高参保率不是由于农户保险意识的提升,而是政府引导的结果,表现出一定的羊群效应,同时,保费补贴对农户的参保作用有限;耕地面积250亩以上农户参加收入保险的可能性增加;高收入省份农户参加收入保险的可能性更低。

Based on the survey data of 13 major grain-producing provinces in China, at first, Logit model is used to analyze the influential factors whether farmers participate in agricultural insurance. And then Nested Logistic Model(NLM) is used to analyze which level of insurance coverage and which kind of insurance farmers would like to take part in. From the perspective of farmer willingness, we explore whether it is suitable for our country to transform from the low level of insurance coverage directly into the high level. Empirical results show that the high participation is not because of the improvement of farmers ’insurance awareness, but the result of government guidance. And the premium subsidy has a limited effect on farmers’ participation in insurance. Farmers behavior has a certain of herding effect. With the increase of arable land, the possibility of farmers participating in income insurance will decrease at this stage, but when more than 250 acres of arable land per household, the possibility will increase. In addition, farmers in high-income provinces are less likely to participate in income insurance. Therefore, from view of farmers’ willingness, it is not suitable to carry out income insurance on a large scale directly at this stage. It should be carried out step by step along with the large-scale development of cultivated land.