中国高耗能行业能源消费的贝叶斯非对称影响效应研究

The Bayesian Asymmetric Influence of Energy Consumption in Chinese Energy-Intensive Industries

构建双机制的非线性FAVAR模型,从贝叶斯角度出发,研究中国高耗能行业能源消费对宏观经济以及环境污染因素的影响效应。利用中国高耗能行业的能源消费以及废气排放数据,结合贝叶斯方法进行非线性FAVAR模型的参数估计,结果发现中国高耗能行业的能源消费增加和减少对国内生产总值、外商直接投资等宏观经济因素以及主要环境污染因素都具有非对称影响效应。但是,高耗能能源消费增加或减少的冲击一般都是短期效应,不具有长期影响效应。

This paper proposes two-regime nonlinear FAVAR model,and from the perspective of Bayesian analysis,the influence of energy consumption to macroeconomics and environmental pollution variables are studied in Chinese energy-intensive industries.Nationally,energy consumption and exhaust emissions data of Chinese energy-intensive industries are collected.Nonlinear FAVAR model is used to examine the asymmetric influence of energy consumption.The results suggest that there exists asymmetric effects from energy consumption increase or decrease to GDP,FDI and the main environmental pollution variables.However,these effects are generally temporary.