工业化、城镇化、信息化、农业现代化、绿色化测度及互动效应研究

Measurement and Interaction Effects of Industrialization, Urbanization, Informatization, Agricultural Modernization and Greenization

运用极值熵值PVAR模型,对中国省域工业化、城镇化、信息化、农业现代化、绿色化(简称“五化”)发展水平及其互动效应进行实证分析。结果表明:“五化”水平整体呈上升趋势,但其在不同时段存在“阶段式上升”“逐年下降”“先升后降”的变化趋势;省城“五化”发展水平差异显著,表现为三种不同的波动类型;分地区比较“五化”水平大小依次为东部>西部>中部,东部“五化”水平高于西部,西部“五化”水平高于中部。子系统水平大小依次为绿色化>工业化>城镇化>农业现代化>信息化。“五化”滞后一期对当期某“一化”的发展具有促进作用,正向冲击效应显著,但对其余“各化”的脉冲响应不敏感;城镇化是工业化的格兰杰原因,工业化和农业现代化是信息化的格兰杰原因,工业化、城镇化、信息化是绿色化的格兰杰原因,其中,工业化影响力最大,子系统间互动融合不足。研究结论可为“五化”协调发展提供重要参考。

The extremum entropy PVAR model is used to give demonstration analysis on the development level and interaction effects of“five modernizations”of China's provinces.The results show that:The level of“five modernizations”is constantly improving,but there are trends of“staged rise”,“decline year by year”and“rise first and then fall”at different time periods.Regional differences are significant and are transformed into three different fluctuation types.The level of“five modernizations”in the east is higher than that in the west,and the west is higher than the middle.The order of subsystem level is greenization>industrialization>urbanization>agricultural modernization>informatization.Lag 1 of“five modernizations”has an enhancing effect on the development of one“modernization”in that certain period of time with significant positive impact,but it is not sensitive to impulse responses of other“modernizations”.Urbanization is the Granger cause of industrialization;industrialization and agricultural modernization are Granger reasons for informatization;industrialization,urbanization and informatization are Granger reasons for greenization;industrialization has the greatest influenceand coordination among subsystems are insufficient.The conclusion of the study provides an important reference for the coordinated development of“five modernizations”.