逆周期资本账户管制对宏观经济稳定与社会福利改善的作用

The Impact of Counter Cyclical Capital Account Regulation on Macroeconomic Stability and Social Welfare Improvement

资本管制能否有效抵御外部冲击实现宏观经济稳定存在争论,本文通过构造开放经济的DSGE模型研究投资限制和逆周期金融交易税等资本管制工具对于实现宏观经济稳定和改善社会福利的作用。通过比较不同政策安排下主要宏观经济变量的波动性和脉冲响应函数可以发现,采用逆周期金融交易税作为资本管制工具在抵御外部冲击、维持宏观经济稳定方面具有比较优势。设置投资限制的资本管制促进了货币政策的独立性,可以使货币政策专注管理国内的经济增长和通货膨胀问题。通过不同政策安排下的福利分析可知,增加投资国外资产的限制对社会福利的增进起到负面作用,增加逆周期金融交易税的资本管制却可以减轻由投资限制导致的资源配置扭曲,从而放松投资国外资产的限制从根本上提高社会福利。所以,在资本管制工具的选择上,采取逆周期金融交易税可能比采用投资限制更优。随着资本账户开放的基本条件不断成熟,用金融交易税取代投资限制更符合浮动汇率制和自由兑换的资本账户的需求。

There is a debate on whether capital control can effectively resist external shocks and achieve macroeconomic stability.In this paper,the DSGE model of open economy is constructed to study the role of capital control tools such as investment restriction and counter cyclical financial transaction tax in achieving macroeconomic stability and improving social welfare.By comparing the volatility and impulse response function of the main macroeconomic variables under different policy arrangements,it can be found that the use of counter cyclical financial transaction tax as a capital control tool has a comparative advantage in resisting external shocks and maintaining macroeconomic stability.Capital control with investment restrictions promotes the independence of monetary policy,which can focus on the management of domestic economic growth and inflation.Through the welfare analysis under different policy arrangements,it can be seen that increasing the restrictions on investment in foreign assets has a negative effect on the promotion of social welfare,while increasing the capital control of counter cyclical financial transaction tax can reduce the distortion of resource allocation caused by investment restrictions,so as to relax the restrictions on investment in foreign assets and fundamentally improve social welfare.Therefore,in the choice of capital control instruments,the adoption of counter cyclical financial transaction tax may be better than the adoption of investment restrictions.With the maturity of the basic conditions of capital account opening,replacing investment restrictions with financial transaction tax is more in line with the demand of floating exchange rate system and free exchange capital account.