淤泥质海底航道边坡稳定性模糊综合评价

Synthetic evaluation on the slope stability of muddy submarine channel based on the fuzzy comprehensive method

淤泥质海底航道边坡稳定性是航道设计与安全运营的重要因素,海底航道边坡稳定性涉及多种因素,有些因素往往难以定量,如何对这些因素进行综合分析尚无统一的方法。根据淤泥质海底航道的特点,基于航道地质因素、水文因素、人为因素、灾害因素4个一级评价指标和14个二级评价指标对航道边坡稳定性的影响程度,建立了淤泥质海底航道边坡稳定性分析的模糊综合评价模型,采用比较方法综合考虑评价因素,通过层次分析法确定权重,使用模糊矩阵合成运算评价等级向量,运用加权平均求取总的评价结果。将模型运用于连云港海底航道,对其航道边坡稳定性进行评价。结果表明,连云港海底航道边坡稳定性定量评价结果为2.43,等级介于比较稳定与相对不稳定之间,倾向于比较稳定,与航道边坡实际较为一致。评价结果综合了更多的因素,具有较高的客观性。

This study is devoted to a quantitative analysis of the key influential factors on the slope stability of the muddy submarine channels so as to guarantee the safe navigation operation.There exist numerous factors related to the stability of submarine navigation waterway slope,such as the geotechnical properties of the slope,the marine hydrological features,etc. Nevertheless,there doesn’t exist any unified evaluation methods for the comprehensive analysis of such marine navigational environmental factors. According to the actual features of the muddy submarine waterway,it is necessary to establish a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for the analysis of muddy submarine waterway slope stability. Such an evaluation model has to be founded based on the 4 first level evaluation indicators,that is,the geological factors,the hydrological factors,human factors,the disaster-involving factors with 14 secondary level evaluation indicators,for example,the indicators related to the evaluation objectives with the method of mutual comparison. Moreover,it is also necessary to establish a weight set of each index in the evaluation system with the analytic hierarchy processing method in cooperation of the expert judgment and quantitative analysis,which has to be treated by using the normalization method. In doing so,a specific evaluation matrix has to be gained through calculation of the weight vector of the secondary evaluation factor with fuzzy evaluation matrix. Last of all,the final evaluation vector can be gained via the combinational operation. Thus,the evaluation model can be used for the slope stability evaluation for the Lianyungang Submarine Channel. And,consequently,the quantitative evaluation result of the Lianyungang submarine waterway slope stability has been worked out as 2. 43,whereas the evaluation grade has been confirmed as being of intermediate level,that is,between relatively stable and relatively unstable. Or,more definitely speaking,it tends to be rather stable,which can be said well in accord with the actual situation of the channel slope. Hence,as compared with the traditional methods,such as calculation results gained via the code formula or by single factor,the results from the method this study has adopted ought to be more objective,for they have taken more factors into account as various sub-indexes,effectively. Hence,this method is in a position to provide a new approach to the evaluation of the submarine waterway slope stability.