基于Netlogo的矿工不安全行为传播仿真研究

Simulated visualization of the unsafe behavior propagation of the miners based on the Netlogo platform

为了研究矿工不安全行为的传播机理并提高煤矿对不安全行为检查及整治的针对性,基于社会网络理论及SIR传播模型,构建了新的矿工不安全行为传播模型。通过Netlogo仿真平台设置矿工不安全行为传播主体、网络、参数等,实现了对模型的模拟仿真。最后将该模型的模拟仿真应用于陕西省咸阳市某煤矿,提出了针对矿工不安全行为传播治理的指导性建议。研究表明,矿工不安全行为传播仿真以可视化的形式将传播过程展现出来,可以为煤矿治理不安全行为提供有效依据,可以根据实际需要调节模型中各仿真参数的取值来预测矿工不安全行为的发展趋势。

In order to trace and disclose the propagation mechanism of the miners’ unsafe behaviors and display its propagation process in a visual way,the present paper has built up a novel propagation model of the miners’ unsafe behaviors on the basis of analyzing the specific features of the social network communication mode of such unsafe behaviors based on the theory of social network and SIR communication model. And, so far as we know,production accidents caused by such unsafe behaviors of the miners are still spreading hardly out of control. The propagating process of the miners’ unsafe behaviors has been actually mindlessly vague and unpredictable,which makes it difficult for the mining companies ’ administrators to regulate properly. In accordance with the actual situation,we have managed to build up a simulated algorithm,through which we have worked out a simulation platform of Netlogo,the main agent,network and parameters of the unsafe behaviors of miners and practiced an actual simulation pursuit. And,finally,we have managed to apply the simulated mode to a coal mine under Xianyang City manipulation,Shaanxi,with necessary suggestions proposed to control the spreading of such behaviors. Through a field research,we have collected the needed primary first-hand simulated materials,which help us to make clear and confirm that the propagation simulation of the miners unsafe behaviors used to be found in the propagation process in a visual manner,featured with the pertinence in a tendency hard to be controlled by the coal mine governance. On course,the simulation parameters given in the model can be properly adjusted according to the actual needs to predict the development trend of such behaviors of the miners. Nevertheless,such unsafe behaviors among the coal-miners have to better be controlled as early as or as soon as possible. As is well known,the network aggregation coefficient is an important parameter in the propagation process of the miners’ unsafe behaviors. Yet,great urgency is to reduce the Network Cluster Coefficient of the transmission network of unsafe behaviors by doing continuous inspection of such behaviors of the miners. Visualizing the danger and risk of the unsafe behavior propagation,it is urgent to trace and predict the spreading trend of the unsafe behaviors in the future,the need and urgency to prepare the simulation parameters in the model should never be neglected or delayed.