河南省人口红利期研判及其空间特征研究

Study on the Demographic Dividend Period and Its Spatial Characteristics in Henan Province

以2010年为研究基年,选取第六次人口普查数据,考虑全面实施二孩政策的影响,假设未来总和生育率高或低两种情况,运用CPPS软件对河南省未来人口进行预测,研究河南省18个省辖(管)市人口红利期的时空特征。结果表明:在时间上,各市人口总数约在2040—2045年达到峰值;总人口红利期持续时间普遍集中在10~20年并且虚假人口红利期普遍长于真正人口红利期。从空间分布上,各市人口红利区类型分布差异显著,高人口红利区的市域零星分布,较高人口红利区的市域主要集中在北部和南部地区,东部和西部地区的市域属于较低人口红利区,总体呈现出北部高于南部、西部高于东部的分布状态。空间自相关分析表明,河南省各市人口红利期持续时间存在正的空间自相关性,各相邻市域之间人口红利期持续时间具有相似属性;从各市人口红利期持续时间的局部聚集特征可以看出,人口红利期空间分布以HH区为主。

Taking 2010 as the base year,this study selected the sixth census data of Henan Province as basic data,considering the impact of two-child policy,assuming the future scenario with high and low fertility rates,by the CPPS software,the future population of 18 municipalities in Henan Province was predicted.And then the duration and spatial distribution of demographic dividend period was researched.The results are as follows.(1)In terms of time,the total population of the city will reach its peak in 2040—2045.The duration of the total population dividend period is generally concentrated in 10~20,and the false demographic dividend period is generally longer than the real demographic dividend period.(2)In terms of spatial distribution,there are significant differences in the distribution of population dividend areas in different cities.The distribution of high population dividend areas is sporadic,while that of higher population dividend areas is mainly concentrated in the northern and southern regions.The eastern and western regions belong to the lower population dividend area,and the overall distribution shows that the distribution state of the north is higher than that of the south,and the west part is higher than the eastern.(3)The spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that there is a positive spatial autocorrelation in the duration of the population bonus period in cities of Henan Province,and the duration of the demographic bonus period has a similar attribute among the adjacent cities.From the local aggregate characteristics of the duration of the city’s demographic dividend duration,it can be seen that the spatial distribution of the demographic bonus period is dominated by HH regions.