基于风险矩阵的多要素水资源承载力综合评价方法

Comprehensive evaluation method of multi-factor water resources carrying capacity based on risk matrix

为合理综合量质域流四要素评价区域水资源承载力,提出了基于量质域流四要素和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价模型(QQSS-RM)。首先,构建量质域流四要素子系统下48个初步评价指标,用专家咨询信息和遗传层次分析法(AGA-AHP)计算四要素子系统中各评价指标的权重,通过筛选和分析采用8个综合评价指标构建区域水资源承载力评价指标体系;其次,参考相关文献和专家意见得到8个综合评价指标的4个评价等级标准;最后,构建基于量质域流四要素和风险矩阵的水资源承载力评价模型。将QQSS-RM用于西辽河流域3个水资源三级区的水资源承载力评价,结果表明:西拉木伦河及老哈河、乌力吉木伦河和西辽河下游区间3个水资源三级区的水资源承载力评价等级分别为超载、临界超载和超载,评价结果显示西辽河流域的水资源承载状况较差。该评价结果与西辽河流域的水资源承载状况基本保持一致,表明QQSS-RM应用于区域水资源承载力评价有较好的推广价值。

In order to reasonably synthesize the carrying capacity of regional water resources by the four elements of water quantity,water quality,water space and stream flow,a water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on the four elements and a risk matrix(QQSS-RM)was proposed.Firstly,48 preliminary evaluation indicators under the subsystem of quantity-quality-space-stream were constructed and the weight of each evaluation index in the four elements was calculated by expert consultation information method and genetic analytic hierarchy process.Through screening and analysis,8 comprehensive evaluation indexes were obtained to construct the evaluation index system for the regional water resources carrying capacity.Secondly,4 evaluation grade criteria of 8 comprehensive evaluation indexes were obtained by referring to relevant literature and expert opinions.Finally,an evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on QQSS-RM was constructed,which was applied to three third grade zones of water resources in the Xiliao River Basin.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity evaluation level of Xilamulun River and Laoha River,Wulijimulun River and the downstream of Xiliao River are overloaded,critical overloaded and overloaded respectively,showing a poor water resources carrying capacity of the Xiliao River Basin.The evaluation results are basically consistent with the current status of the Xiliao River Basin,indicating that the QQSS-RM model has better application value in regional water resources carrying capacity evaluation.