大连市水资源开发利用风险评价

Risk assessment of water resources development and utilization in Dalian

随着沿海地区的开发建设,大连市水资源开发利用在经济发展进程中发挥着越来越重要的作用。为更加科学、合理地开发利用该区域水资源并探讨其风险现状,本文分别从水资源开发利用状况、水资源现状、社会经济水平等方面建立评价体系,根据不同的突变类型确定各指标的风险值,然后运用突变理论对水资源开发利用风险进行评价。研究表明:大连市水资源开发利用处于高度风险状态,评价结果基本能够反映区域水资源利用现状;所建立的评价体系和风险等级标准具有较强的科学性、合理性,可为该区域水资源管理规划和风险决策提供参考依据。

With the development and construction of coastal areas, the development and utilization of water resources in Dalian is playing an increasingly important role in the process of economic development. In order to develop and utilize the water resources in this region more scientifically and rationally,as well as to explore its risk status quo, this paper establishes evaluation systems from the aspects of water resources development and utilization status, water resources status quo, social and economic level, etc. The risk value of each index is determined according to different mutation types, and then evaluates the risk of water resources development and utilization by mutation theory. The research shows that the development and utilization of water resources in Dalian is at a high risk, and the evaluation results can basically reflect the current situation of regional water resources utilization. The established evaluation system and risk grade standard are scientific and reasonable, which can provide reference basis for water resources management planning and risk decision-making in the region.