地震灾害后频繁余震对群众心理应激情绪影响建模分析

Modeling and Analysis of the Effect of Frequent Aftershocks on Psychological Stress of the Masses after Earthquake Disaster

针对现有研究频繁余震对群众心理应激情绪影响方法,未考虑不同层级人群的应激情绪情况,采用蝴蝶形突变模型进行频繁余震对群众心理应激情绪影响建模分析。通过蝴蝶形突变模型分析地震灾害后频繁余震对群众心理应激情绪影响,将频繁余震对群众心理应激情绪的影响分为对焦虑情绪、抑郁情绪、恐惧情绪以及愤怒情绪的影响。以汶川地震后四川绵阳地震重灾区为例进行研究,分析频繁余震对不同性别、年龄、文化程度人群的4种心理应激情绪影响程度以及综合评价结果。采用分层多步回归分析法分析社会支持和个体消极沉思对焦虑、抑郁情绪的多元决定系数变化值的影响,完成地震灾害后频繁余震对群众心理应激情绪影响的分析。分析结果表明:地震灾害后的频繁余震对女性、中老年、以及文化程度相对较低人群的心理应激情绪影响最为严重;同地震灾害后频繁余震相关的消极沉思与社会支持主效应以及交互效应对焦虑情绪的影响比较显著,高社会支持对高消极沉思群众的焦虑情绪影响起到显著中介作用,消极沉思与社会支持交互效应对抑郁情绪的影响不显著。

The butterfly catastrophe model is used to model and analyze the influence of frequent aftershocks on people’s psychological stress, which does not take into account the situation of people’s psychological stress at different levels. The butterfly catastrophe model was used to analyze the impact of frequent aftershocks on people’s psychological stress emotion after earthquake disaster. The impact of frequent aftershocks on people’s psychological stress emotion was divided into anxiety, depression, fear and anger. Taking the Mianyang earthquake in Sichuan as an example, this paper analyzed the influence of frequent aftershocks on four kinds of psychological stress emotions of different sex, age and educational level people and the comprehensive evaluation results. The influence of social support and individual negative meditation on the change of multiple determinant coefficients of anxiety and depression was analyzed by hierarchical multi-step regression analysis. The influence of frequent aftershocks after earthquake disaster on people’s psychological stress was analyzed. The results show that frequent aftershocks after earthquake disasters have the most serious impact on the psychological stress emotion of women, middle-aged and elderly people, and people with relatively low educational level;the main effect of negative meditation and social support related to frequent aftershocks after earthquake disasters and the interaction effect on anxiety emotion are more significant, with high social expenditure. Holding has a significant mediating effect on the anxiety of the high negative meditation crowd, while the interaction effect of negative meditation and social support has no significant effect on depression.