摘要
地质灾害成功预报是指通过多种形式的监测预警手段,在地质灾害临灾前,由单位或个人对地质灾害将要发生的时间、地点、范围或强度等进行准确的预判并发出预报预警信号,相关部门立即采取必要的避险防治措施后,避免了人员伤亡或财产损失的事件过程。该文以2003-2018年陕西省553起地质灾害成功预报为样本,以第一次预报预警信号的来源为依据,界定了地质灾害监测预警和成功预报的模式,辅以具体案例并对每一种模式进行了定义。文章认为地质灾害监测预警和成功预报的模式有:专业监测型、巡查排查型、气象预警型、群测群防型共四种模式,四种模式的成功预报率由低至高具"金字塔"型。
The successful prediction of geological disasters means that through various kinds of monitoring and early warning approaches, before the geological disaster, the authority or individual could be able to accurately predict the time, location, extent or intensity of the geological disaster, and issue warning signal, then the relevant departments could immediately take necessary measures to avoid the loss. Based on the successful forecasting of 553 geological disasters in Shaanxi Province from 2003 to 2018, this study defined the modes of geological disaster monitoring and early warning and successful prediction based on the source of the first forecasting and warning signal, typical cases were demonstrated in this study. Four mode were defined: professional monitoring mode, patrol inspection mode, meteorological early warning mode, public prevention mode, and the successful rates of the four modes have a "pyramid" form from low to high.
作者
李傲雯
李永红
姚超伟
苏晓萌
惠明强
任超
杨渊
LI Aowen;LI Yonghong;YAO Chaowei;SU Xiaomeng;HUI Minqiang;REN Chao;YANG Yuan(School of Water and Environmen,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Mine Geological Hazards Mechanism and Control,Xi’an 710054,China;Shaanxi Institute of Geo-Environment Monitoring,Xi’an 710054,China;College of Geology Engineering and Geomatic,Chang’an University,Xi’an 710054,China)
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期222-229,共8页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
陕财办预6号《陕西省财政厅关于批复2017年省级部门预算的函》
关键词
地质灾害
成功预报模式
监测预警
专业监测型
巡查排查型
气象预警型
群测群防型
successful predicting modes of geological disasters
monitoring and early warning
professional monitoring mode
patrol inspection mode
meteorological early warning mode
public prevention mode
