基于集对分析法的喀斯特地区水资源安全动态变化及原因分析——以贵州省为例

Analysis of dynamic change and reason of water resource security in karst areas using the set pair method: An example of Guizhou Province

根据中国西南喀斯特地区特殊的水文水资源特点,从水资源赋存、供水状况、用水状况、水资源利用效率、水资源管理等五个方面构建了水资源安全评价指标体系,选择SPA(集对分析法)对贵州省2001-2015年水资源安全状况进行了动态评价。结果表明:贵州省2001-2007年水资源处于临界安全状态,2008-2015年水资源整体处于安全和较安全等级(除2009干旱年份外)。从影响水资源安全的5大要素类的变化看,水资源赋存受自然环境因素影响显著,H2值较不稳定;供水状况因受水利工程建设的影响,2001-2015年H2值由0.53上升到0.90;用水状况因生产用水和生态环境用水的提高,H3值由2001年的0.87下降为2015年0.20;水资源利用效率因万元GDP用水量以及农田亩均灌溉用水量的显著下降,H2值由2001年的0.26增加到2015年的0.88,向安全和较安全等级转变明显;水资源管理受生活污水处理率、森林覆盖率显著提高的影响,H2值由2001年的0.09增加到2015年的0.58,由原先的极不安全等级提升到临界安全等级,但在某些方面,如万元GDP污染物减排率等仍有较大的提升空间;供水状况、水资源利用效率、水资源管理这几个方面均表明人类行为对水资源安全影响显著。

According to the features of hydrology and water resource in karst areas of southwestern China,an index system of evaluating water resource security is established involving five parts,water resource occurrence,water supply quo,water consumption situation,water resource utilization efficiency,and water resource management.With the SPA(set pair analysis),this paper dynamically evaluates the water resource security status of Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2015.The results show that the water resource in Guizhou Province from 2001 to 2007 was in a critical state,while from 2008 to 2015 it was generally safe and relatively safe(except 2009 a draught year).In terms of the change of five factors effecting water resource security,the water resource location depends on the natural environmental factors remarkably,so the H2 value was relatively instable;water supply status was influenced by water conservancy project construction,so the H2 value from 2001 to 2015 rose from 0.53 to 0.90;for water consumption status,as water consumption in production and ecological environmental purpose raised,H3 value declined from 0.87 in 2001 to 0.20 in 2015.In terms of water resource efficiency,it was drew down largely by the water using in Wanyuan GDP and farm land average irrigation,so the H2 value grew from 0.26 in 2001 to 0.88 in 2015,turning into secure and relatively secure ranks obviously.The water resource management was under the impact of increasing municipal sewage treatment rate and raising forest coverage rate,so the H2 value went up from 0.09 in 2001 to 0.58 in 2015,improving the original extremely unsecure rank into critical secure rank.But for some aspects,such as Wanyuan GDP pollution abatement rate,they still have a long way to go;the aspects of water supply,resource utilized efficiency,and resource management all indicate that human behavior has great influence on the water resource security.