基于震例类比的震后趋势早期判定技术系统建设

Aftershock Analysis and Forecasting System Construction Based on Seismic Analogy

针对目前震后趋势早期判定中存在的基础知识库匮乏、产出规范化不足等问题,整理、完善、充实了震后趋势背景知识库,集成专家经验形成基于震例类比的震后趋势早期判定规则,并利用信息模板智能筛选技术,建立了震后趋势早期判定技术系统,实现了震情自动触发的地震基本概况(构造背景信息)、历史地震活动(震源机制、序列类型统计)、震后趋势研判意见等相关图件、文字、PPT报告的自动撰写与权限控制下的多平台推送。系统试运行8个月中,90%以上的震例产品在5min内产出;约80%的震例自动判定结果与人工研判结果基本吻合,震级差小于0.5;系统自动判定结果与地震实况的吻合度优于人工研判结果。试运行结果证明该系统在中国地震台网中心震后趋势快速研判中发挥了重要作用。

We enriched and organized the basic knowledge database and integrated expert experience into the rules for early post-earthquake trend decision,and then implemented the intelligent template technology to build the early aftershock analysis and forecasting system.It could automatically output the basic earthquake information,tectonic background,the historical seismic activity,seismic mechanism and sequence type statistics,the post-earthquake trend opinion or other related graphics,Word,PPT reports and finally push them up to multi-platform push under the control of permissions.The eight-month-long trial operation results show that more than 90%of the earthquake case products are produced within 5 minutes.About 80%of the automatic opinions are basically consistent with the results of the artificial decision,and the magnitude differences are less than 0.5 magnitude.What's more,the conformity of the system automatic output and the actual post-earthquake is better than the results of manual results.