基于DEA-ESDA的四川省耕地利用效率时空分异及影响因素研究

Spatial-temporal Difference and Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land Use Efficiency of Sichuan Province Based on DEA-ESDA

基于2004年、2009年和2014年四川省各区县的耕地利用数据,运用数据包络分析法(DEA)模型、探索性空间数据分析法(ESDA)探讨2004—2014年四川省耕地利用效率的时空分异格局及空间相关性,通过Tobit模型方法揭示四川省耕地利用效率的主要影响因素.研究结果表明:1)2004—2014年四川省耕地利用综合效率均值为0. 614,呈现波动下降的态势,攀西土地利用区耕地利用效率均值最大;2)耕地利用效率较高效利用区逐步往西迁移缩减,较低效利用区及低效利用区向东向南扩散增加;3)耕地利用效率H-H聚集区向西向南迁移,L-L聚集区向东迁移缩减;4)耕地利用效率的主要影响因素为人均耕地面积及单位耕地面积化肥施用量等.

Based on the data of cultivated land use of Sichuan Province in 2004,2009 and 2014,this paper uses DEA model and exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)to explore the spatial-temporal pattern and spatial correlation of cultivated land use efficiency in Sichuan Province.And explore the main influencing factors of cultivated land use efficiency by Tobit model method.The results show that:1)the average comprehensive efficiency of Sichuan Province from 2004 to 2014 is 0.614,showing a trend of declining fluctuation.The average value of cultivated land use efficiency in the land use area of Panxi is the largest;2)more efficient use areas of cultivated land efficiency gradually migrate to the west and reduced.Lower inefficient and inefficient use areas increase to the east and south;3)the H-H gathering areas migrate to the west and south,and the L-L gathering areas reduce to the east;4)the influencing factors of cultivated land use efficiency are mainly per capital arable land area and the fertilizer applied amount of unit area of cultivated land.