中国城乡居民收入的分布动态演进：1985—2017

The Dynamic Evolution of the Income Distribution of Urban and Rural Residents in China: 1985-2017

利用我国28个省市(自治区)1985-2017年的面板数据,采用分布动态法,对城乡居民收入进行分析,进而刻画样本考察期内中国城乡居民收入的分布动态演进及趋势。核密度分析结果表明,中国城乡居民收入水平总体在不断提高,但地区差距呈现持续扩大的态势,并伴随着一定的极化现象。马尔科夫链分析结果表明,不同城乡居民收入状态间流动性较低,难以实现跨状态转移,总体表现出中低水平省份逐渐减少,并向着高水平发展。应提升中西部地区的发展潜力,大力发展区域经济,发挥政府在城乡战略布局中的主导作用。

Using the panel data of 28 provinces and municipalities(autonomous regions)in China from 1985 to 2017,the distribution dynamics method is used to analyze the income of urban and rural residents,and then the dy⁃namic evolution and trend of the income distribution of urban and rural residents in China during the sample survey period are described.The results of nuclear density analysis show that the income level of urban and rural residents in China is generally improving,but the regional gap has continued to expand,accompanied by a certain polarization phenomenon.The results of Markov chain analysis show that the mobility between different urban and rural resi⁃dents is low,and it is difficult to achieve cross-state transfer.The overall performance shows that the middle and low level provinces are gradually decreasing and developing towards a high level.The development potential of the cen⁃tral and western regions should be enhanced,the regional economy should be vigorously developed,and the leading role of the government in the urban-rural strategic layout should be brought into play.