气象敏感性负荷特性分析及预测

Analysis and Forecast of Whether Sensitive Load Characteristic

以电网迎峰度冬和迎峰度夏为背景,将电网负荷中的气象敏感负荷作为研究对象,对负荷预测气象指标进行分析,结合天气预报准确性分析,得出累积温度指标的适用性范围。分别采用基于累积温度指标的预测方法和基于综合气象指标的预测方法对气象敏感负荷进行预测,并针对大幅度升温/降温以及天气转化情况时对预测方法进行改进,提出在累积温平均温度变化超过2℃时,宜采用基于累积温度在平日预测时采用变化和平均温度变化加权指标进行负荷预测,在晴雨转换时采用修正后的综合气象指标预测法的综合气象敏感性负荷预测方法。实际算例和应用表明,该预测算法具有更高的准确度,为目前负荷预测提供一定依据。

This paper takes the background of the winter peaks and the summer peaks.Taking the meteorological sensitive load in the grid load as the research object,the load forecasting meteorological index is analyzed firstly.The applicability range of the cumulative temperature index is obtained by combining the weather forecast accuracy analysis conclusion.The forecasting method based on the cumulative temperature index and the forecasting method based on the integrated meteorological index are used to predict the meteorological sensitive load.The prediction method is improved for the large temperature rise/cooling and weather conversion.It is proposed that when the cumulative temperature average temperature changes by more than 2℃,it is better to use the cumulative temperature based on the cumulative temperature and the average temperature change weighting index for load forecasting based on the cumulative temperature,and the comprehensive meteorological sensitivity forecasting method using the revised comprehensive meteorological indicator forecasting method during the rainy day transition.The example shows that the prediction algorithm proposed in this paper has the better effect and prediction accuracy.