不完全汇率传递的区域差异性——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Regional Differences in Incomplete Exchange Rate Transmission Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

利用2006-2017年我国30个省级面板数据(不包含西藏自治区、港澳台地区),建立滞后1期的随机效应面板模型,研究不完全汇率传递的区域差异性,即人民币名义有效汇率变动对通货膨胀影响的区域差异性。实证结果表明:汇率变动与通货膨胀水平存在显著的负相关性,即本币贬值导致通货膨胀;东部地区的汇率传递效应明显弱于中部、西部地区,这使得货币政策在东部地区更为有效。我国应实施更多稳定高效的货币政策,以稳定通货膨胀;应着重稳定国内物价水平,为更灵活的汇率制度提供施展空间;中、西部地区可借鉴东部地区的模式,促进经济发展。

A random effect panel model with Lag Period 1 was established using 30 provincial panel data in Chinese mainland 2006-2017(excluding Tibet Autonomous Region)to study the regional differences in incomplete exchange rate transmission,or regional differences in the impact of changes in the RMB’s nominal effective exchange rate on inflation.The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between exchange rate changes and the level of inflation that the devaluation of the local currency leads to inflation;and that the effect of exchange rate transmission in the eastern region is significantly weaker than that in the central and western regions,which makes a more effective monetary policy in the eastern region.China should implement more stable and efficient monetary policies for inflation stabilization and price stabilization to strive for a more flexible exchange rate system,and the central and western regions can learn from the mode of the eastern region in promoting economic development.