京津冀第二产业发展与能源消耗脱钩态势评价

Evaluation on the Decoupling Situation between Economic Growth and Energy Consumption of the Second Industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

基于经济驱动力—能源消耗压力—能源消耗效率脱钩指标,完善脱钩指标构建模式,并采用Tapio弹性系数法,动态评价“九五”—“十二五”时期年京津冀第二产业发展与能源消耗脱钩态势。研究表明:“九五”—“十二五”时期,北京先后经历“弱脱钩-强脱钩-弱脱钩-强脱钩”脱钩态势;天津先后经历“强脱钩-弱脱钩-弱脱钩-弱脱钩”脱钩态势;河北先后经历“弱脱钩-扩张性负脱钩-弱脱钩-弱脱钩”脱钩态势。京津冀脱钩态势与河北趋同,仍处于“弱脱钩”态势,实现脱钩的前提在于河北第二产业能源消耗实现“零增长”或“负增长”,并提出加快第二产业发展与能源消耗脱钩的对策建议。

The energy efficiency index is brought into the decoupling index.On the basis of perfecting the construction model of the decoupling index,the Tapio elastic coefficient method is used to dynamically evaluate the decoupling situation of the secondary industry energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei during the Ninth five-year Plan to the Twlfth five-year Plan period.The results show that Beijing has experienced the alternate state of“weak decoupling-strong decoupling-weak decoupling-strong decoupling”,Tianjin has experienced“strong decoupling-weak decoupling”,and Hebei has experienced the state of“weak decoupling-expansibility negative decoupling-weak decoupling”.The decoupling situation between energy consumption and economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei industry is still in the“weak decoupling”,and the premise of decoupling the development of secondary industry and energy consumption in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region lies in the“zero growth”or“negative growth”of energy consumption in Hebei secondary industry.Some suggestions on accelerating decoupling are put forward from two aspects:speeding up the adjustment of industrial structure and increasing the intensity of scientific and technological innovation.