“一带一路”倡议沿途国家的国际贸易潜力分析

International Trade Potentials along the Belt and Road Initiatives

在逆全球化的趋势之下,我们根据国际贸易的“引力模型”和贸易行业特征从不同角度对“一带一路”沿途国家的国际贸易潜力的广义边际和集约边际进行了回顾和分析。首先,在“一带一路”倡议沿途国家中,中国对亚洲和欧洲经济体量较大的国家存在一定的贸易依赖度,而大部分的亚洲国家对中国的贸易依赖度都很大;其次,沿途国家中经济大国在贸易潜力的广义边际(贸易产品种类)和集约边际(总贸易量)上对中国的贸易发展都更为重要;最后,中国与“一带一路”倡议沿途国家还处于基于资源禀赋不同的产业间贸易。中国应该在政策上关注经济体量大的、经济发展程度好的、以及与中国有更多产业内贸易的国家,以此快速加深区域一体化的合作。

Under a tougher international environment for China due to the trend of anti-globalization among western societies,we revisit the economic development of the countries along the Belt and Road initiatives and analyze their international trade potentials from different perspectives suggested by the gravity model and the new trade model.Our major findings can be summarized by three parts.First,China’s international trade only relies partially on big and more developed economies along the B&R,while most Asian countries rely on China for their international markets heavily.Second,both the number of traded products(extensive margin)and total trade volume(intensive margin)of Chinese international trade are mainly driven by the big and more developed trading partners.Third,China still focuses on the inter-industry trade with the countries along the B&R,however,intra-industry trade is getting more and more important for China’s further economic development.In order to make the B&R initiatives more effective in promoting regional economic integration,we suggest that China should design additional preferential policies towards bigger and more developed economies,as well as countries complementary to China along the global value chains.