徐州市沛县农田林网更新经济效益预测

Economic benefit prediction on regeneration of farmland shelter forest network in Peixian County,Xuzhou

该研究对徐州沛县农田林网更新产生的经济效益进行预测,旨在为该区农田林网更新措施及可持续发展提供参考依据。分别运用静态和动态经济评价指标,对其更新建设的投入成本和预期收益进行分析,预估了该研究在一个评价周期内产生的经济效益。预测结果表明,进行林带更新后,一方面水稻产量增加,在一个评价期内水稻收益现值可增加7.61%,另一方面木材、坚果和景观树种等林产品也带来了巨大的收益。在一个评价周期内,在不考虑时间成本的情况下,投入成本为654.11万元,产生的总利润为343.44万元,年均利润约为34.34万元;在考虑时间成本的情况下,以年贷款利率作为贴现率进行分析得出,投资成本现值为515.57万元,获得的年均利润现值为21.98万元,净现值率达到42.64%,内部收益率为6%,效益成本比为1.43。

The economic benefit of farmland shelter forest network regeneration in Peixian County,Xuzhou was predicted,aiming to provide reference for the renewal measures and sustainable development in this area. By using static and dynamic economic evaluation indexes,the cost and the benefit of the regeneration in an evaluation cycle were estimated. The results showed that the present value of rice yield could increase by 7. 61% in an evaluation cycle after regeneration,and the forest products such as wood,nuts and landscape tree species could also bring huge benefits. In an evaluation cycle,without considering the time cost,the input cost was 6. 54 million yuan,the total profit was 3. 43 million yuan,and the average annual profit was about 343,400 yuan in an evaluation cycle. Taking the time cost into consideration,the net present value(NPV)of the investment cost was 5. 16 million yuan,the present value of the average annual profit was 219 800 yuan,the net present value rate(NPVR) is 42. 64%,the internal rate of return(IRR) was 6%,and the benefit-cost ratio was 1. 43. It was concluded that farmland shelter forest network renewal project in Peixian County,Xuzhou would obtain relatively high return with low input.