武陵山片区旅游发展水平与多维贫困的耦合关系研究

Coupling Relationship between Tourism Development Level and Multidimensional Poverty in Wuling Mountain Area

辨识和分析连片特困区旅游发展水平与多维贫困之间的动态关系,可以为中国实现全面脱贫和防止返贫提供参考。首先,分别测度武陵山片区42个国家级贫困县的旅游发展水平和多维综合贫困,引入脱钩模型分析二者的脱钩状态及变动趋势;继而,对2009—2018年的面板数据进行检验,分析武陵山片区旅游发展水平与多维贫困之间的长期协整关系和Granger因果关系。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,武陵山片区整体旅游发展水平呈明显的上升趋势;多维贫困指数下降态势显著且存在区域差异,县域单元之间的差异是导致武陵山片区贫困差异的主要因素。(2)武陵山片区42个贫困县的脱钩关系以强脱钩为主,未实现强脱钩的县域单元在地理空间上呈零星团簇状分布。(3)武陵山片区旅游发展水平和多维贫困之间存在长期均衡关系,并且存在由旅游发展向多维贫困的单向Granger因果关系。据此,围绕武陵山片区如何发挥旅游乘数效应、提升旅游扶贫效率等内容,提出相应的对策建议。

The dynamic relationship between tourism development and multidimensional poverty in contiguous poverty-stricken areas is identified and analyzed,which can provide an important reference for China to achieve comprehensive poverty alleviation and prevent poverty return.Firstly,this paper respectively measured the tourism development level and multidimensional comprehensive poverty of 42 national-level poor counties in Wuling Mountain area,and the decoupling model was introduced to analyzed the decoupling relationship and changing trend of the two.Then,by using the panel data from 2009 to 2018,we explored the long-term co-integration relationship and Granger causality between tourism development level and multidimensional poverty in Wuling Mountain area.The results show that:1)During the study period,the overall tourism development level of Wuling Mountain area showed an obvious upward trend.The multidimensional poverty index has a significant trend of decline and there are regional differences.The difference among county units is the main factor of poverty difference in Wuling Mountain area.2)The decoupling state of 42 poverty-stricken counties in Wuling Mountain area was mainly strong,and those counties who was not achieved strong decoupling showed sporadic cluster distribution in geographic space.3)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism development level and multidimensional poverty,and a one-way Granger causality from tourism to multidimensional poverty in Wuling Mountain area.Based on the above conclusions,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward on how to give full play to the tourism multiplier effect and improve the efficiency of tourism poverty alleviation in Wuling Mountain area.