新一代信息技术能否成为动力变革的重要支撑?——基于新兴产业分类与企业数据挖掘的实证分析

Can the New-generation Information Technology Act as the Key Support for the Transformation of Development Impetus? Empirical Analysis based on Classification of Emerging Industries and Firm-level Data Mining

新一代信息技术作为新一轮科技革命的核心,可以通过“产业机制”和“赋能机制”推动和支撑经济发展动力变革。本文收集14514家样本企业,通过文本分析挖掘比照《战略性新兴产业分类(2018)》重新划分样本企业行业归属。在此基础上,筛选高成长企业,将其行业分布与新一代信息技术及其他战略性新兴细分行业对比,并构造表征新一代信息技术的代理变量,就其与省域经济增长及全要素生产率的关系进行计量检验。结果表明:虽然战略性新兴产业企业在样本企业中占比仅为30%左右,但筛选出的高成长企业60%以上都归属于战略性新兴产业;高成长企业中又有60%~70%属于新一代信息技术产业及数字创意产业。面板分析结果显示,新一代信息技术对省域经济增长有着明显的促进作用,但并不能提升全要素生产率;新一代信息技术已成为促进我国经济发展动力变革的重要支撑,但主要是通过产业机制来实现。未来我国应着力进行生产组织、设施完善、人员培训等方面的适应性改造,发掘新一代信息技术赋能机制方面的潜力。

As the kernel of the new scientific&technological revolution,the New-generation Information Technology(NGIT)can promote and support the transformation of economic development impetus through“industrial mechanism”and“empowering mechanism”.In this paper,14,514 sample firms were collected and reclassified according to the classification of strategic emerging industries(2018)by way of text analysis and mining.Then,high-growth firms are screened and the industry distribution of these firms is further compared with the segmentations of the NGIT and other Strategic Emerging Industries.The proxy variables for the NGIT are constructed to test the impact of NGIT on provincial growth and TFP.The empirical analysis shows that:more than 60%of the selected high-growth companies belong to strategic emerging industries,to which only about 30%of the sample firms belong of the high-growth strategic emerging firms,60%-70%belong to the NGIT and the digital creative industry.The results of panel analysis show that the new generation of information technology can promote the provincial economic growth obviously,but not improve its TFP.The NGIT has been becoming an important support for the transformation of China’s developing impetus,which is mainly achieved through the industrial mechanism.In the future,China should focus on the adaptive transformations such as optimization of production organizing,facilities improvement,personnel training etc.,and exploit the empowering mechanism potentials of the NGIT.