国际最终需求视角下中国外需的就业效应:基于MRIO模型

Employment Effect of China’s Foreign Demand from the Perspective of International Final Demand:An Analysis Based on MRIO Model

从国际最终需求的视角,本文基于MRIO模型,利用WIOD数据库1995-2009年的世界投入产出表和社会经济账户,动态研究了外需对中国的就业效应及其技能结构。研究表明:整个研究期间,外需对中国的就业效应呈现出明显的上升态势,尤其自2001年中国“入世”以来,外需对中国就业的拉动作用尤为突出,其引致的就业人数占中国总就业人数比例由2001年的15%提高至2007年的23%,受2008年国际金融危机的影响,外需的就业效应有所减弱;由于中国出口产品结构以劳动密集型产品为主,外需对中国“农业”、“纺织业”等劳动密集型行业的就业效应比较显著;从就业人员技能结构来看,外需的就业效应主要集中于低技能就业人员,对高技能就业的拉动效应较弱。

From the perspective of international final demand and based on MRIO model,this paper analyzes the employment effects and skill structure of China s foreign demand with 1995-2009 WIOT and SEA in WIOD.The results show that the employment effect of foreign demand takes an upward trend during the whole research period,especially after China s entry into the WTO in 2001.The employment proportion stimulated by foreign demand increased from 15%in 2001 to 23%in 2007.Then due to global financial crisis in 2008,the employment effect of foreign demand has weakened.The employment effect of foreign demand on agriculture,textile industry and other labor-intensive industries is significant.However,the effect is relative weak for high skilled employment.