江苏省自然资源利用时空变化特征及驱动力分析

Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving forces of natural resources utilization in Jiangsu Province

基于改进的三维生态足迹模型测度江苏省2009—2016年的人均生态足迹、足迹深度与足迹广度,定量分析江苏省自然资源利用状况的时空变化特征;用改进的T型关联分析探讨江苏省人均生态足迹的驱动因子,并利用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测江苏省2019—2022年生态足迹与生态承载力的演变趋势。结果表明:1)2009—2016年,江苏省人均生态足迹、人均生态赤字、足迹深度与足迹广度均呈上升趋势,人均生态承载力略有下降。除建设用地外,耕地、林地、牧草地、水域与化石能源用地均处于生态赤字状态,其中,化石能源用地的生态足迹占全省生态足迹的主要部分;牧草地与水域的足迹深度较高,资源存量透支较为严重;耕地的足迹广度占全省足迹广度的主要部分,其在研究期内略有下降。省内各城市间足迹深度与足迹广度的差异较大,足迹深度表现为苏南>苏中>苏北,足迹广度为苏北>苏中>苏南。2)引导第三产业发展,提高能源利用效率,增强区域贸易交流能够缓解人均生态足迹的增长;人均GDP的增长、城市化水平以及人口规模的提高促进了生态足迹的增长。3)2019—2022年,江苏省人均生态足迹将进一步增加,人均生态承载力将小幅下降,生态赤字现象将继续存在且总量不断增加,生态环境压力进一步加剧。

Based on the revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint,the per capita ecological footprint,footprint depth and footprint size of Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2016 were measured,and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of natural resources utilization in the province were quantitatively analyzed.Then,the driving factors of per capita three-dimensional ecological footprint were discussed by using the revised T-form correlation analysis.Additionally,the grey model GM(1,1)was established to predict the evolution trend of ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Jiangsu from 2019 to 2022.The results showed that:(1)From 2009 to 2016,the per capita ecological footprint,per capita ecological deficit,footprint depth and footprint size were all increasing while the per capita ecological carrying capacity slightly decreased.Cultivated land,woodland,grassland,water area and fossil energy land were all in the state of ecological deficit,except for construction land.The ecological footprint of fossil fuel land occupied a dominant position of the whole province;the footprint depths of grassland and water area were much higher,so the overdraft of resource stocks was very serious.The footprint size of cultivated land accounted for the main part of that of whole area,but it declined slightly during the research period.There were great differences in footprint depth and footprint size among 13 cities in Jiangsu Province,with the footprint depth in the order of southern region>central region>northern region,and the footprint size in the order of northern region>central region>southern region.(2)Inducting the development of tertiary industry,improving energy efficiency and regional trade exchanges could alleviate the expanding trend of per capita ecological footprint in Jiangsu Province,while the growth of per capita GDP,urbanization level and the increasing of population scale could promote the growth of ecological footprint.(3)The results of grey prediction showed that the per capita ecological footprint would continue to grow from 2019 to 2022,while the per capita ecological carrying capacity would decline slightly.Therefore,the phenomenon of ecological deficit would continue to exist and become more serious,and the pressure on the ecological environment would further intensify.