基于人为活动影响识别的区域地下水水质演化预测:以石家庄地区为例

Prediction of Regional Groundwater Quality Evolution Affected by Human Activities: A Case Study of Shijiazhuang Area

地下水的水质演化预测一直以来是一个难点,单纯依赖于历史数据所反映的水质演化趋势预测未来水质,存在较大的局限性。以石家庄地区为研究区,提出将现状人为活动对地下水的影响程度作为校正因子,修订历史数据所表现出来的水质演化趋势,预测未来水质变化的方法。并以石家庄地区浅层地下水代表性指标总硬度、TDS、NO3-、Fe4项指标作为预测指标,尝试预测了2025年代表性指标的演化情况。结果表明:TDS和总硬度恶化的区域主要为灵寿县东南方向、藁城区和无极县靠近滹沱河河道附近等区域;Fe恶化的区域主要为石家庄市区中部以及东南部等区域;NO3-恶化的主要区域为鹿泉区与灵寿县交界附近、石家庄市区西北以及藁城区靠近滹沱河河道附近等区域。预测结果与研究区水文地质条件、人为污染源的排放以及地下水的开采等因素影响下的情况较为吻合。

Prediction of groundwater quality evolution has always been a difficult issue,with its implications largely limited by the sole dependence of historical data for the evaluation.Taking Shijiazhuang area as the study area,we put forward a method to revise the water quality evolution trend shown by historical data,and predict the water quality change by using the degree of current human activity influence on groundwater as a correction factor.The four major indices of shallow groundwater at Shijiazhuang(i.e.,total hardness,TDS,NO3-and Fe)were used as prediction indices for the evolution of representative indices in 2025.The results show that the water quality deterioration areas for TDS and total hardness are mainly in the southeastern part of the Lingshou County,Gaocheng District and Wuji County near the Hutuo River.The deterioration areas for Fe are mainly distributed in the central and southeastern parts of Shijiazhuang City,and those for NO3-are near the junction of Luquan District and Lingshou County,northwestern Shijiazhuang City and around the Hutuo River in Gaocheng District.The predicted results are in good agreement with the hydrogeological conditions,the man-made pollution sources and groundwater extraction in the study area.