人口流动管制与中国宏观经济波动——基于异质性技能视角分析

Population Flow Control and China’s Macroeconomic Fluctuations:Analysis Based on Heterogeneous Skills

人口流动是我国经济的热点问题之一,那么人口流动管制对我国宏观经济波动有什么样的影响?文章在标准RBC一般均衡模型中引入了异质性高低技能劳动,考察了人口流动管制对宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现:(1)劳动人口流动管制对总产出和总消费都有负向影响,会增加低技能工资,降低高技能工资;(2)资本质量冲击、政府购买冲击不仅会使消费和工资水平下降,同时也会造成福利下降,其中单位政府购买冲击会使居民福利下降最大,低技能总福利损失大于高技能总福利损失;(3)通过方差分解发现人口流动冲击能解释产出波动的7.83%和投资波动的5.60%,同时还发现随着经济中高技能比重加大,单位人口流动负冲击对社会福利损失越大。文章基于人口流动管制异质性视角研究得出流动人口管制不利于经济增长和社会总福利,为我国流动人口研究提供了新的研究视角。

Population mobility is a hot topic in China’s current economy,and the what is the impact of population mobility on China’s economic fluctuations. This paper introduces heterogeneous high and low skill labor in the standard RBC-like equilibrium model,and examines the impact of population mobility control on macroeconomic fluctuations. The study found that:(1)The negative impact of labor force flow control has a negative impact on total output and total consumption,increasing low-skilled wages and lowering high-skilled wages;(2)capital quality shocks,government purchase shocks will make consumption and also reduce welfare,the government purchase shock will make the welfare of the residents fall the most,the low-skill total welfare loss is greater than the high-skilled total welfare loss;(3)the variance of the population can be explained by the variance decomposition,which can explain the 7.83% of the output fluctuation. The investment fluctuated by 5. 60%. In addition,it is also found that as the proportion of high-skilled entities in the economy increases,the negative impact of unit population turnover on social welfare losses. Based on the heterogeneity of population flow control,this paper studies that the regulation of floating population is not conducive to economic growth and total social welfare,and provides a new perspective for the study of floating population in China.