土地城镇化与碳生产率的非线性影响关系研究

Research on the Non-Linear Relationship between Land Urbanization and Carbon Productivity

为探究推进新型土地城镇化与碳生产率提高是否存在双赢局面,基于中国1980—2015年相关数据,运用非线性模型研究了土地城镇化与碳生产率的动态影响关系。研究结果表明:(1)土地城镇化对碳生产率存在单向非线性影响,说明城市土地开发效率对碳生产率的影响并非保持固定不变;(2)NARDL模型显示,土地城镇化对碳生产率具有显著的正向滞后影响,但负向滞后冲击程度较之更强,说明传统土地城镇化发展模式存在效率过低的问题;(3)LSTR2模型显示,土地城镇化对碳生产率的非线性影响具体表现为从低区制到高区制再到低区制的两个区制平滑转换的特征,且在高区制的影响强度大于低区制,因此,土地城镇化应尽快实现转型以避免在低区制中受到负效应的冲击。

In order to explore whether there is a win-win effect in promoting the new land urbanization(LU)and carbon productivity(CP),this paper studies the dynamic relationship between land urbanization and carbon productivity by employing nonlinear model based on the data from 1980 to 2015 in China.The results show that:(1)There is a one-way non-linear influence relationship between LU and CP,indicating that the effect of urban land development efficiency on carbon productivity is not constant.(2)The result of NARDL(non-linear autoregressive distributed lag)model shows that land urbanization has a positive lag effect on carbon productivity.But CP is more susceptible to the negative impact of LU,and traditional LU has the problem of low efficiency.(3)The result of LSTR2(logistic smooth transition regressions)model shows that the non-linear impact of LU on CP is characterized by the change from low-zone to high-zone and then to low-zone.It can be concluded that LU should avoid negative impact from CP in low-zone.