中美两国大气污染与经济增长关系比较分析

Analysis on Air Pollution and Economic Growth between China and the U.S.

对中美两国的大气污染与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究对比分析。研究表明:(1)构建的EKC模型与Tapio脱钩模型都能很好地表述GDP与SO2、NOx排放量之间的关系,中美两国EKC三次拟合结果R^2>0.85,脱钩分析表明我国SO2和NOx分别在2006年、2011年后呈持续强脱钩状态,美国SO2和NOx分别在1975年、1991年后整体呈现强脱钩状态。(2)中美两国倒"U"型曲线有所不同,我国环境库兹涅茨曲线对比美国向左下方移动,按照经济增长水平,我国较美国提前到达大气污染排放峰值点。(3)从SO2、NOx两个大气污染指标看出目前我国大气污染与经济增长处于负相关,进一步支持了我国推动绿色发展方式与节能效果,但是相对美国来讲,可能还有一段路要走。

The article applies the EKC model and the Tapio decoupling model,and choose sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides as index of air pollution,GDP as an index of economic growth.An empirical analysis of the relationship between air pollution and economic growth in China and the U.S.was conducted.The study shows that:(1)Both the EKC model and the Tapio decoupling model can well describe the relationship between GDP and sulfur dioxide,nitrogen oxides emissions.The cubic polynomial fitting result of EKC in China and the U.S.are R^2>0.85.The analysis of decoupling shows that the sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides of China were strong decoupling after 2006 and 2011 respectively.The sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides of the U.S.were overall kept strong decoupling after 1975 and 1991 respectively.(2)The"U"type curves of China and the U.S.are different.The EKC of China is compared to the U.S.moving to the lower left.According to the level of economic growth,China has reached the peak of air pollution emissions ahead of the U.S.(3)From the two air pollution indexes of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides,China’s air pollution is negatively correlated with economic growth at present,which further supports the green development mode and energy efficiency of China,but compared with the U.S.,there is still a long way to go.